Michael Mauboussin — How Nice Traders Make Selections, Harnessing The Knowledge (vs. Insanity) of Crowds, Classes from Race Horses, and Extra (#659)


“Wall Road, even to today, is replete with numerous guidelines of thumb and form of previous wives’ tales and shorthands for the best way to do issues. And a few of these issues, after I would sit there and take heed to them and attempt to cobble all of it collectively, simply didn’t make sense. And so for me it was this concept of the newbie’s thoughts and actually saying, ‘How does these things actually work?’”
— Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) is Head of Consilient Analysis on Counterpoint International at Morgan Stanley Funding Administration.
Previous to becoming a member of Counterpoint International, Michael was Director of Analysis at BlueMountain Capital, Head of International Monetary Methods at Credit score Suisse, and Chief Funding Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Administration. Michael initially joined Credit score Suisse in 1992 as a packaged meals business analyst and was named Chief U.S. Funding Strategist in 1999.
Michael is the creator of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. Extra Than You Know was named certainly one of “The 100 Finest Enterprise Books of All Time” by 800-CEO-READ, top-of-the-line enterprise books by BusinessWeek (2006), and finest economics e-book by Technique+Enterprise (2006). Michael can be co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.
Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Enterprise Faculty since 1993 and is on the college of the Heilbrunn Middle for Graham and Dodd Investing. He acquired the Dean’s Award for Instructing Excellence in 2009 and 2016 and the Graham & Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Worth Investing in 2021.
Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown College. He’s chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a number one heart for multidisciplinary analysis in advanced methods principle.
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#659: Michael Mauboussin — How Nice Traders Make Selections, Harnessing The Knowledge (vs. Insanity) of Crowds, Classes from Race Horses, and Extra
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Wish to hear one other episode with an investor of cutting-edge perception? Take heed to my dialog with Benchmark’s Invoice Gurley, through which we mentioned sell-side analysts versus buy-side analysts, monetary fashions, repurposing good concepts for various purposes, the conviction of community results, undervalued aggressive benefits, cultivating anti-tribalism, America’s future, and far more.
#651: Legendary Investor Invoice Gurley on Investing Guidelines, Discovering Outliers, Insights from Jeff Bezos and Howard Marks, Should-Learn Books, Creating True Aggressive Benefits, Open-Supply Methods, Adapting Psychological Fashions to New Realities, and Extra
What was your favourite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know in the comments.
SCROLL BELOW FOR LINKS AND SHOW NOTES…
SELECTED LINKS FROM THE EPISODE
- Join with Michael Mauboussin:
- The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon
- Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon
- More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon
- Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport | Amazon
- Santa Fe Institute
- History of the Royal Society | Royal Society
- Creating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors by Alfred Rappaport | Amazon
- Michael Mauboussin, Interview No. 4 | Farnam Street Blog
- Drexel Burnham Lambert | Wikipedia
- Stokely Approves Quaker Bid | The New York Times
- Sports Science to Fuel Athletes | Gatorade
- Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge by E.O. Wilson | Amazon
- Consilient Observer | Morgan Stanley
- Who Actually Invented the Wheeled Suitcase? | Interesting Engineering
- WALL-E | Prime Video
- Complex Adaptive System | Wikipedia
- Embracing Complexity | Harvard Business Review
- The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki | Amazon
- Teams Solve Problems Faster When They’re More Cognitively Diverse | Harvard Business Review
- The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies by Scott E. Page | Amazon
- The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay Off in the Knowledge Economy by Scott Page | Amazon
- Michael Mauboussin 20th Year Tribute Video | Andrew Mauboussin
- How to Unleash the Wisdom of Crowds | The Conversation
- Market Efficiency and the Bean Jar Experiment | Financial Analysts Journal
- The Asch Conformity Experiments | Verywell Mind
- How to Manage a Team to Make Good Decisions | Credit Suisse
- The Future Divined by the Crowd | The New York Times
- How a Guessing Game Can Make You a Better Leader by Jake Wilder | The Startup
- Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate | Current Directions in Psychological Science
- Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein | Amazon
- Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street by Peter L. Bernstein | Amazon
- Bionomics: Economy as Business Ecosystem by Michael Rothschild | Amazon
- More Heat than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature’s Economics by Philip Mirowski | Amazon
- Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos by M. Mitchell Waldrop | Amazon
- The Economy As An Evolving Complex System: The Proceedings of the Evolutionary Paths of the Global Economy Workshop, Held September, 1987 in Santa Fe, New Mexico by Philip W. Anderson | Amazon
- Value Investing | Investopedia
- Invest Like the Best with Patrick O’Shaughnessy
- Private vs. Public Company: What’s the Difference? | Investopedia
- What Is a Buyout? | Investopedia
- Venture Capital | Investopedia
- How Interest Rates Affect the US Markets | Investopedia
- Base Rate | Wikipedia
- Daniel Kahneman: Beware the ‘Inside View’ | McKinsey
- Triple Crown Teachings | Credit Suisse
- Think Twice: An Interview with Michael J. Mauboussin | Emerald Publishing
- Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst by Robert M. Sapolsky | Amazon
- Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers: The Acclaimed Guide to Stress, Stress-Related Diseases, and Coping by Robert M. Sapolsky | Amazon
- The 2007–2008 Financial Crisis in Review | Investopedia
- Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis | Amazon
- Performing a Project Pre-Mortem | Harvard Business Review
- Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals by Niall Ferguson | Amazon
- Hindsight Bias | The Decision Lab
- The Dangers of “Creeping Determinism” | The Space Review
- Skill Stacking: How to Combine Your Talents for Greater Success with David Epstein | Chase Jarvis Photography
- Construct Validity in Psychological Tests by Cronbach & Meehl (1955) | Classics in the History of Psychology
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock | Amazon
- The Wisdom of Crowds and The Expert Squeeze | Farnam Street Blog
- Principles of Naturalistic Decision Making | Naturalistic Decision Making Association
- Prospect Theory | Investopedia
- Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree | American Psychologist
- System 1 and System 2 Thinking | The Decision Lab
- The Art of Learning: An Inner Journey to Optimal Performance by Josh Waitzkin | Amazon
- Chunking Theory in Chess | Bill Wall
- Draft No. 4: On the Writing Process by John McPhee | Amazon
- Dr. Matthew Walker, All Issues Sleep Continued — The Hidden Risks of Melatonin, Instruments for Insomnia, Enhancing Studying and Sleep Spindles, The Upsides of Sleep Divorce, How Sleep Impacts Intercourse (and Vice Versa), Adventures in Lucid Dreaming, The One Clock to Rule Them All, The IP Addresses of Your Recollections, and Extra | The Tim Ferriss Present #654
- Game of Thrones | HBO
- The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do by Judith Rich Harris | Amazon
- No Two Alike: Human Nature and Human Individuality by Judith Rich Harris | Amazon
- Parent Effectiveness Training: The Proven Program for Raising Responsible Children by Thomas Gordon | Amazon
- Free-Range Kids: How Parents and Teachers Can Let Go and Let Grow by Lenore Skenazy | Amazon
- 12 Years After Free-Range Kids, How Has Childhood Changed? | Reason
- Yellowstone National Park | US National Park Service
- Complexity: A Guided Tour by Melanie Mitchell | Amazon
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Amazon
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer | Amazon
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer (PDF) | CIA
- Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Amazon
- Expectations Investing
SHOW NOTES
- [07:12] Latin roots.
- [09:14] No enterprise training? No drawback!
- [12:15] The most effective meals business analyst.
- [15:36] Consilience.
- [19:58] Advanced adaptive methods.
- [23:26] Range.
- [26:23] The knowledge of crowds.
- [32:42] The minimal efficient dose of cognitive variety.
- [36:02] Designing experiments.
- [43:49] In opposition to the Gods and Complexity.
- [49:56] Worth investing and the Santa Fe Institute.
- [53:57] A short Twenty first-century asset class tour.
- [57:47] Base charges and horses.
- [1:06:16] Good vs. nice buyers.
- [1:13:22] Increasing choices when making choices.
- [1:18:56] Favourite failures.
- [1:20:35] Counteracting overreliance on consultants.
- [1:24:34] Instinct.
- [1:34:15] Time administration tenets.
- [1:40:59] Parental assets.
- [1:43:42] Views gained by studying about advanced adaptive methods.
- [1:46:12] Really useful studying.
- [1:47:32] Michael’s billboard.
- [1:50:33] Parting ideas.
MORE MICHAEL MAUBOUSSIN QUOTES FROM THE INTERVIEW
“Wall Road, even to today, is replete with numerous guidelines of thumb and form of previous wives’ tales and shorthands for the best way to do issues. And a few of these issues, after I would sit there and take heed to them and attempt to cobble all of it collectively, simply didn’t make sense. And so for me it was this concept of the newbie’s thoughts and actually saying, ‘How does these things actually work?’”
— Michael Mauboussin
“How do I parse what I feel would lend itself to the place sample recognition will likely be efficient versus the place it’s unlikely to be efficient?”
— Michael Mauboussin
“What’s unhealthy about younger folks is that they don’t know something. And what’s good about younger folks is that they don’t know something.”
— Michael Mauboussin
PEOPLE MENTIONED
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